Steak Will Only Get Pricier in 2026
Plus: A visit to Confidant, followed by price hikes at Cote, The Eighty-Six, Wild Cherry, Atla, Skirt Steak, and elsewhere
Confidant versus Colonie
Let me tell you about one of my favorite New York evenings.
Two summers ago, my artist friends and I strolled up and down the Brooklyn waterfront — with a very good dog — before ending up at Colonie for an impromptu bite. We soaked up the waning sunlight, shared a little halibut and duck breast (the server even brought a water dish for Mister Woof), and then we picked up a fizzy pet’nat to keep hydrated during a screening of “Challengers.”
It was a glorious night. But the actual dinner — the part I usually focus on as a critic — was just a single event in our longer evening. I appreciated that. And that’s exactly why I enjoyed my recent meal at Confidant in the old Colonie space. The brand new American spot by two Roberta’s alums had the easygoing energy of a neighborhood staple.
We snagged two bar seats after a few minutes. And then, we ate.
There was no waitsplaining, like at a recent tasting menu where each course required 60 seconds of contextual monologuing. There was no upselling. There were no folks constantly changing silverware or saying “sorry to interrupt.” And the cocktails all cost less than twenty bucks each.
We ordered some bread with boquerones, a plate of mushroom pasta, and a big steak with potato foam (as one does). And for dessert, we walked over to Henry Public for cold gin martinis. It was another glorious night.
But here’s the thing: we didn’t spend too much time dwelling upon what we ate.
It was just dinner.
Just like my last meal at Colonie, my first meal at Confidant didn’t dominate our evening. It simply fit in like the penultimate piece of a jigsaw puzzle. I realize that’s the type of normal societal function that thousands of restaurants fulfill every day without folks like me writing about it, but it’s nice to experience this type of ease and unobtrusiveness at a venue that folks might otherwise call a hotspot.
You feel me?
It’s Sunday, 5 April 2026. Ashley Padilla continues to kill it on SNL. Amazon continues to charge me obscene sums for my NA negroni habit (let’s try to keep Lapo’s in stock!!!). And gasoline prices have hit $4.11/gallon nationwide, putting a strain on consumers everywhere.
Would you like to read a restaurant review? My fellow contributing critic at the NYT Mahira Rivers has a two-star take on Pangat, a Western Indian spot in Park Slope. And my good colleague Luke Fortney, who writes the excellent “Where to Eat” column, somehow ended up at Henry Public a few days before me; apparently I should’ve ordered a few beignets to soak up the booze!
The martinis there are strong, lol.
In case you’re in the mood for something clubby on the South Asian front, Matthew Schneier has an early take on Ambassador’s Clubhouse in New York, while chief NYT critic Tejal Rao filed on Gymkhana in Las Vegas a few weeks back!
And finally, be sure to follow Ravenous on Instagram. Some good journalists that I know quite well are launching something cool on Monday!
Beef prices predicted to rise 10 percent or more in 2026
The USDA forecasts that prices could jump as high as 18 percent
About a month ago, I swung by a popular Mexican spot to meet up with another food writer. And to grab a few tacos.
So the story goes that the owner recognized me and we ended up chatting for a few minutes. I asked him whether he’d have to raise carne asada prices — this is what happens when you strike up a convo with me, lol — and he replied that he probably wouldn’t have to. At least not anytime soon.
He said he’d heard that beef prices might ease up this year.
This conversation, I should note, took place before the war in Iran. And it appeared for a while that things wouldn’t be terrible on the steak front in 2026.
Consumer beef and veal prices actually fell in December, and the USDA initially predicted that things would only hike up by 5.5 percent this year. A five or six percent increase isn’t too shabby compared with last year’s absolutely massive beef price inflation, fueled by tight cattle supplies and strong consumer demand. And earlier this year, Carnibro RFK Jr. rejiggered our nation’s dietary guidelines to highlight saturated fats like red meat and tallow.
But really. There’s no way that things could be that bad in 2026 at the checkout counter, right? Well, I have some tough news on that front.
The USDA raised its price forecast at the end of March. The agency now expects beef and veal prices to rise by 10.1 percent this year; that number could be much lower — or much higher, as steep as 18.3 percent.
Yep.
It’s unclear if the war in Iran factored into that forecast, but here’s what we do know: Diesel prices have risen by $1.97 since this time last year. And higher fuel prices put cost pressures on just about every aspect of the cattle industry. Or as AGDAILY explained earlier last month: “When diesel prices rise sharply, the cost of hauling cattle to feedlots or packing plants increases almost immediately.”
Translation: Higher fuel costs could eventually translate to higher beef costs at the grocery store and at restaurants.
Ground beef is already 20 percent higher than at this point last year.
The Mexican operator I was chatting with earlier still hasn’t tweaked his steak prices. A recent Axios report suggested that restaurants are hiking their prices more slowly than grocery stores, “making steakhouse meals look like a better value than they used to.” Perhaps that’s true nationwide, at chain spots; Axios was speaking to Darden’s chief executive, who runs the LongHorn brand (which I’ve never visited).
But things look tougher in New York City, as they always do.
As I’ve reported before: A good steak and a side can easily surpass $100 in Manhattan. One of my favorite strip loins at the moment — from Kiko in West Soho — will run $125 after a side of rice, tax, and tip.
Indeed, scores of New York restaurateurs have been pushing up the cost of steak dinners recently. I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen so many beef price hikes all at once! Would you like to take a look?
Steak Price Hikes: Almost Literally Everywhere!
Cote
As Simon Kim prepares to open his second New York Cote at the old Sony Building on Madison Avenue, he’s raising the set-menu price at his Flatiron flagship by four bucks to $82. That’s still a fair deal; you get four cuts of Korean beef with banchan, egg soufflé, spicy kimchi stew, savory doenjang, lettuce wraps, and soft serve. But it’s breathtaking to see the restaurant nearly double in price since the early days back in 2017. That’s inflation for you.
If anything, the real challenge is getting a reservation; if you care to swing by next Friday your party of three won’t do better than midnight, lol. And let the record state: The $225 beef omakase, whose price hasn’t changed for a while, remains the best menu offering at Cote. 16 West 22nd Street, Flatiron
The Eighty-Six
The uber-exclusive West Village restaurant ranked as the county’s top steakhouse on a recent listicle, which is impressive for a brand new venue that most civilians will never get into. But if you do score a booking, dinner will be just a little bit pricier than before. The dry-aged rib cap (I’ve not encountered a dry-aged calotte elsewhere) is up by nine bucks to $78, while the porterhouse is up $10 to $160. Other prices have ticked up as well. 86 Bedford Street, West Village
Wild Cherry
My favorite thing about the latest hotspot by Riad Nasr and Lee Hanson (Frenchette) is the steak dinner for two. It’s a hefty Denver cut with a small salad, a baked potato, and a soft serve dessert. When I reviewed it in December, the prix-fixe ran $120. Now, it’s $140. Zoinks! Still a deal, though. 38 Commerce Street, West Village
Skirt Steak
Laurent Tourondel’s bare-bones prix-fixe spot reopened this year with the same menu: A field green salad, a prime skirt steak, and endless fries. It’s more or less the same deal as Le Relais de Venise (not my cup of tea, $38), or Medium Rare (which I still need to try, $35). Skirt Steak is the most expensive of the bunch, especially at the new price of $48, a three dollar hike. That’s literally twenty bucks more than the opening menu from 2022. 835 Sixth Avenue, Midtown
Atla
Enrique Olvera used to serve one of the city’s top budget steaks. His chile-rubbed ribeye with herbed potatoes ran $42 when I wrote it up around this time last year. Now, it comes with refried beans and guacamole. Cost: $65. That’s a heck of a hike — the extra $22 you’re now spending would otherwise pay for an entire plate of suadero tacos (and then some) on Atla’s current menu. 372 Lafayette, Noho
Carne Mare
One of my favorite steaks in the city has hopped up in price yet again. The 12-ounce gorgonzola-cured wagyu striploin, packed with all sorts of heady blue cheese aromas, was $72 at the time of my 2021 review. It steadily climbed in price over the years, and not too long ago it jumped by five bucks to $155. It’s well over double the original price. Carne Mare is part of Andrew Carmellini’s NoHo hospitality group. 89 South Street, Seaport
The Dynamo Room
Steak frites is a New York standard for an affordable-ish dinner. But at The Dynamo Room in the Penn District, the chief deal is an old-school steak & mashed. It’s easily one of the city’s top budget steaks, but now it’s just a little bit spendier, at $44.95, up a buck from the opening price last year. The Dynamo Room comes courtesy of the team behind Rule of Thirds and Cafe Chelsea. 2 Pennsylvania Plaza at 33rd Street and Seventh Avenue, Midtown West
Cuerno
Prices are up across the board at the Northern Mexican steakhouse, the first U.S. outpost of the Grupo Costeño empire. The skirt steak tacos with bone marrow have risen by four bucks to $42. And the arrachera norteña, the cheapest cut on the menu, is now seven dollars pricier at $52. 1271 Avenue of the Americas, Midtown
The Grill
I can’t pin down when it happened — likely sometime between last June and now — but The Grill’s excellent prime rib with a deviled bone has risen by seven bucks to $105. And the New York strip steak has risen by thirteen dollars to $115. The Midcentury Modern space by Philip Johnson and Mies van der Rohe remains one of the city’s most beautiful dining rooms. 99 East 52nd Street, Midtown East
Esse Taco
The ribeye steak taco at Enrique Olvera’s massively improved taqeuria is up by 30 cents to $7.25, while the American wagyu — one of the city’s priciest tacos — is up by 50 cents to $13.45. 219 Bedford Avenue, Williamsburg
Hamburger America
George Motz’s celebrated Soho spot upped the price of the classic smashburger and fried onion burgers by a quarter to $7.75 in the new year. The burgers were $7.25 when the space opened in 2023. 155 West Houston Street, Soho
Many thanks to Kirstie Kimball for including me in this long reported piece about critics who are doing their things on Substack. Publishing reviews and columns like these without editors is….often quite scary lol!
My next column is a bit more labor intensive than usual, so you’ll likely see me back in your inbox the following Mon or Tuez!
Happy Easter and Happy Passover!
Cheers,
Ryan!
Ryan Sutton is a contributing restaurant critic for The New York Times and editor of The Lo Times. You can read starred NYT reviews by Mahira Rivers and Ryan Sutton right here.
p.s. Shout out to Brooklyn-based artist Marcela Avelar for the Confidant photo up top!
p.p.s. I’m still mulling over my meal at Confidant! I didn’t get a chance to visit the original Industry City location, which I understand didn’t really click (check out the smart Helen Rosner review in The New Yorker). But I did enjoy the steak. Maybe I’ll write about it soon? Briefly: It’s dry-aged. It comes with potato espuma. It’s not served “a la carte” (a.k.a. a hunk of meat on a plate). Instead, it’s presented as a composed main, which is why it looks like this:
Right on.
The coming recession will probably lead to desperate reversal.
Given the topic, shout-out to "the dirty deal" at Backstage behind Stage Star Deli at 35 bucks for a steak frites and martini. The whole setup cracks me up with a stereotypical midtown lunch deli cooking the food for the 'speakeasy' behind it. I can't tell you what kind of meat it was and I don't even care because it's good enough and fun.